Some 2,400 years ago, in Asia Minor, Alexander the Great, with a well-aimed stroke of his sword, untied the Gordian knot. Barack Obama can do the same to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with well-aimed words and action. He must, unequivocally, boldly and clearly, declare that there has been a quantum change in the way that the U.S. government views that conflict. That continuing with the policy of talking about peace while acting in a way that completely contradicts that speech is no longer acceptable. He must declare, in conclusion, that failure is no longer an option; that, in other words, success is a foregone conclusion -- �foretold� (like in Gabriel Garcia Marquez�s story, The Chronicle of a Death Foretold). That it must happen at the end of a predetermined period of time -- which can be one, two or three years � when a solution considered fair by an international panel of wise men, or independent arbiters, will be adopted and implemented.
The American president must take the initiative to do that because the Israelis and the Palestinians are unable, and/or unwilling, to do it by themselves. The former, as shown by the election results of February 10, 2009 (see below), have moved radically to the right; the latter are badly divided.
The election was fought on security, and not on peace. However, Israelis, in the deepest recesses of their souls, know that they will never achieve true security without peace. As for the Palestinians, they must accept the reality that Israel is here to stay. If this conflict is allowed to continue snowballing in the same direction, the Israelis and the Palestinians will find out that they are on a suicidal path. Throughout the world, anti-Israeli sentiment is growing and morphing into anti-Jewish sentiment. Palestinians will suffer a great deal of misery and deprivation.
With the Gaza war, an invisible threshold has been crossed. War no longer will be an option in the future. A third intifada, yes, violent repression, yes, but not war. Because it is now clear that there is no military solution to this conflict. However, a final conflagration, a final catastrophe, a final apocalypse can bring global destruction.
Allowing the establishment of large colony blocs in the West Bank, Israel has put itself in a position that it risks civil war if it attempts their dismantlement. The evacuation of the �territories� is, therefore, only possible if it is seen as being imposed by the Americans, i.e., Barack Obama.
Fundamental to this conflict has been the existence of two dreams. One, Jewish-Israeli, the other Palestinian. The Jewish-Israeli dream is the creation (or re-creation, if one believes in the Bible) of greater Israel. After the extraordinary victory in the Six Days War of 1967 -- which was seen by many Israelis and Jews around the world as a miracle, or an act of God -- all the Israeli governments without exception have pursued that dream. It could be argued for a while, even by secular Jews, that it was a legitimate dream. After all, all nations are entitled to their dreams. The problem is that the Israeli political leadership was unable, and/or unwilling, to see that the dream was progressively turning into a nightmare. Today, the large majority of the Israelis know that the realization of the greater Israel dream has become impossible, and that it must be abandoned. But many are still clinging to it, unable to give it up themselves. They need outside help to do it.
Palestinians too had a dream: the recovery of the totality of their lost homeland. Thex dreamed that they could go back to their villages, houses, gardens and fields. But, after more than sixty years, there are no villages, houses, gardens and fields to go back to. They have all disappeared. Palestinians believe that they were made to pay the price for the Holocaust, that terrible crime committed against the Jewish people. That is true to a certain extent. But, again, there is nothing to be done about it, except compensating Palestinians for their losses. So, Palestinians too must abandon their dream. They too need outside help to do it.
It is true is that Iran and its client organizations, Hezbollah and Hamas, and Islamic fundamentalists and Al Qaeda, are implacable enemies of Israel. However, contrary to a widespread belief among the Diaspora Jews and the Israelis, if Israel does the right thing, making peace with the Palestinians, the case of the enemies of Israel will be considerably weakened, and that of the Jews and Israelis, significantly strengthened.
The truth is that even if Iran succeeds in becoming a nuclear power in the next five to ten years (a big if), Israel will maintain its military superiority for decades to come. And, of course, it is absurd to believe that Iran would actually use nuclear weapons against Israel, knowing full well that if it did, it would, almost certainly, face total annihilation. As for fundamentalist Islam and Al Qaeda, they too would be weakened considerably if the Americans and Israel did the right thing concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Yes, the Hamas charter states that Israel must be destroyed, the whole of Palestine liberated and an Islamic state established. However, it would be appropriate to recall that that was in PLO�s charter as well until � it was changed. If Obama decides to act, Hamas will be faced with two options: accepting the two-state solution; or disappearing into the dustbin of history. If Israel does the right thing, it cannot lose.
The real risk for Israel is that, if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not resolved soon, it is inevitable that cultural, academic and sports boycotts, followed by economic sanctions, will be put in place against it. The key elements is that the world opinion is largely against Israel and for the Palestinian people. There is no other viable solution than the two-state solution whereby the two nations would live side by side in peace and harmony.
The results of the parliamentary elections of February 10, 2009 in Israel show clearly that a dangerous shift to the right has occurred in Israel. The elections were not fought on peace but on security. A dangerous illusion prevailed that security can be obtained by military force. The right-extreme right has won the elections: Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud, Avigdor Lieberman of the Israel Beiteinu (Israel Is Our Home) and the sephardic and ashkenazic religious parties of Shas and United Torah Judaism/The Jewish Home have 61 seats. That is enough to have a majority in the Knesset. That does not mean that Tzipi Livni�s Kadima and Ehud Barak�s Avoda (Labour), with 28 and 13 seats respectively, are on the left. They are not even at the center. The left -- Meretz, 3 seats, and the Israeli Arab-dominated parties of Balad, Hadash and Taal, 11 seats � has all but disappeared in Israel. The rising star and kingmaker of the Israeli politics is Avigdor Lieberman. The man is a demagogue and a fascist.
Israel, presently, is suffering from a grave leadership crisis. Benjamin Netanyahu, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak are not great visionary leaders. They cannot be compared, for example, to a David Ben-Gurion who, despite his faults, and the mistakes he made, was a great leader with a vision. In this respect, it would be good to remember Yehoshua Leibowitz�s warning that extreme nationalism leads to militarism, and the latter to barbarism.
In the West Bank, elections are scheduled to be held before the end of the year. If the �peace process� is not reactivated by Obama, it is possible that Hamas will win them. And Fatah, as a consequence, will disappear. Or (with Israel�s complicity) there will be a civil war, which will be a true catastrophe for the Palestinians, for it would justify the Israeli refusal to engage in policies that can result in true peace.
So, it is up to you, Mr President, to provide visionary leadership in this conflict. You must show the way, do what it is necessary to create a better and sustainable future for the Israelis and Palestinians. That will be good for the Western world�s interests in the region. You spoke of hope, change and truth in the U.S. election campaign. Here is a good opportunity to put these noble ideas into practice by untying the Gordian knot of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. You will then have deserved (as Thomas L. Friedman wrote in one of his recent op-ed pieces) not one but two Nobel Peace Prizes.
(*) A scholar and a writer, Zeki Ergas is Secretary General of P.E.N. International�s Swiss Romand Center and a member of that organization�s Writers for Peace Committee. He was recently in Israel-Palestine on a three-week fact-finding mission to explore the possibility of organizing in Haifa or Jerusalem � with the support of P.E.N. International (which represents some 15,000 writers around the world) � a conference of intellectuals, writers and artists to discuss the issues involved in building a better future for Israelis and Palestinians. Dr. Ergas is the founder of the Yahad-Ma�an (Together) Geneva Group which needs your help.
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